Passed 7-5. Brendan
Adminned at 24 Oct 2007 09:45:17 UTC
(rough transcript of town meeting)
blah blah ... werewolf ... blah blah ... hairy back ... blah blah ... Remember the Maine! ... yadda yadda.
[If this proposal passes, the Mayor will make a story post that sets forth, as of the time that this proposal passes, the hairy back status of each Villager.]
If it should’ve been known it would’ve been tracked in the GNDT. I ain’t stripping for your witch hunt, and will go to the authorities if you filthy bugger s try to make me.
Wont this help the werewolves determine who is their ally? I think not!
Only werewolves can truly have a clear conscience. The villagers always wonder if there was something else they could’ve done to help.
i give you a room at the inn and this is my thanks? get out of my inn ya welp.
No harm in it - there’s only a 1 in 4 chance that someone with a hairy back is a werewolf.
How are you getting the 1-in-4, out of interest?
With (say) 14 humans and 2 werewolves, and the “hairy back test” being 25% or 50% accurate respectively, we can expect to turn up an average of 3.5 hairy humans and 1 hairy werewolf - so a hairy person has a 1-in-4.5 chance of being a werewolf.
I’m not done with the analysis of Amnistar, Darknight, or Igthorn yet, but the correct application of Bayes’ Law tells us, that if any of the original 12 non-mayor villagers (2 of which are werewolves) has a hairy back, then there is a 2/7 chance that he is a werewolf. If he has a smooth back, there is a 2/17 chance that he is a werewolf. These calculations ignore the possibility of barbzerdry.
Alright, with no additional information, we have that Amnistar, Darknight, and Igthorn have 1/28, 1/30, and 1/32 chances of being a werewolf (respectively).
If we discover hairy backs, the werewolf probabilities rise to 2/29, 2/31, and 2/33 (respectively).
If we discover smooth backs, the werewolf probabilities drop to 2/83, 2/86, and 2/89 (respectively).
Kevan:I’d counted the mayor as one of the original 13.
I had also not taken into account my own clean back/non-werewolf status.
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aaronwinborn:
[maybe it should be clarified to allow an exception, such as villagers who refuse, or maybe by going idle? obviously at their own risk…]
[and maybe the fanatics could bare their backs in a show of patriotism, even if the proposal fails…]