Sunday, October 01, 2023

Proposal: Acca cadabra

Timed out and enacted 5-1. Josh

Adminned at 03 Oct 2023 21:00:07 UTC

Add the following to the end of the rule Betting:

An Acca is a series of bets placed on any number of different Sporting Events that all take place on the same day. A Punter may, at any time, have up to one open Acca, and may place an Acca by sending the Bookie a message containing all of the Bets that it will incorporate, with the details of each bet as per the criteria in this rule, except for a single Stake that covers the entire Acca.

When the Bookie is Cashing Bets, the Bets in an Acca are processed as follows:
* They are resolved in order, from the first Sporting Event in the Form Sheet to the last;
* The Stake for the first Bet is the Stake of the Acca;
* The Stake for each subsequent Bet is the winnings from the previous bet in the Acca, plus the Stake of the previous bet in the Acca, if the previous bet in the Acca was won; otherwise it is 0.

High risk, high reward

Comments

Bucky:

01-10-2023 20:09:47 UTC

The Stake should be zero if a previous bet in the Acca resulted in no winnings.  If I win 10 Readies in the first bet and lose 10 Readies in the second bet, the third bet should have zero stakes, not 10.

Bucky:

01-10-2023 20:10:35 UTC

Or, more simply, the Stake for each bet is equal to the winnings of the previous bet, with no need to look further.

Clucky: he/him

01-10-2023 20:12:13 UTC

If we want this to be a true parley, I think “The Stake for each subsequent Bet is the accumulated winnings of the Acca so far” needs to be reworded

In a real parley, if you bet on a 3:1 and 4:1 it should wind up being a 20:1 bet where you only win if both events occur, and lose your bet all other times

But here if I bet 10 on a 4:1 and win, my “winnings” are only 40. If I then bet on a 3:1 and win, I get 120 from that bet, plus the 40 from the first bet, so a net profit of 160.

If I lose the 3:1 bet, I lose my 40 but keep the original 10, meaning I overall get nothing

If I lose the 4:1 bet regardless of the 3:1 bet I lose me 10

Its not really a deal breaker. But I wonder if we can word this better so we get an actual parley while still having it work with meddling

Josh: he/they

01-10-2023 20:12:21 UTC

Thanks; that was the intent so glad to have clarified the wording.

Clucky: he/him

01-10-2023 20:15:56 UTC

I think something like

“The Stake for each subsequent Bet is the Winnings plus the Stakes from the previous bet in the Acca if the previous bet was won, or 0 if the previous bet was lost.”

solves this.

It does make meddling interesting because you can actually still come out ahead if you get caught meddling in the first round but don’t meddle in the second round. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing

Josh: he/they

01-10-2023 20:17:43 UTC

Thanks Clucky - have adopted your wording.

Clucky: he/him

01-10-2023 20:22:01 UTC

I don’t think “plus the Acca’s Stake” works with three or more bets in a row. Needs to be the stakes of the previous bet.

Say you have 3 bets, all 1:1. In theory this means that each event has a 50% chance to occur, so the odds of hitting all three are one in eight so an equivalent bet should be 7:1

But if you use your wording with original stakes of 10:

Hit bet 1: win 10. New bet is 10 + 10 = 20
Hit bet 2: win 20, new bet is 20 + 10 = 30
Hit bet 3: win 30

You only win 60 here

meanwhile if you lose bet 3, rather than losing your original 10 bet you’ve not lost anythign

Josh: he/they

01-10-2023 20:27:59 UTC

Ok, how does it look now?

Clucky: he/him

01-10-2023 20:48:00 UTC

yeah I think its good now.

Bucky:

01-10-2023 21:03:00 UTC

This needs to mandate that each bet in an Acca be on a different Sporting Event from all the others.

Bucky:

02-10-2023 15:22:03 UTC

imperial

JonathanDark: he/him

02-10-2023 15:30:59 UTC

What happens in the scenario where the Punter planned a Meddle on the first Sporting Event in the Acca, but not the others, and then got successfully fined for it from an Accusation?

As currently written, that Punter would lose the winnings from the first Bet in the Acca, but they would have also been able to use those winnings as part of the Stake in the next Acca, and so on, thus it’s actually worthwhile to make an obvious Meddle in the first Bet of the Acca and let the cascading winnings outweigh the risk of getting caught from an Accusation.

Trying to unwind this where a successful Accusation somehow removes the winnings of the first Bet from the subsequent Bets in the Acca seems tricky.

JonathanDark: he/him

02-10-2023 15:32:36 UTC

I see Clucky already made this argument but then concludes that it’s not such a bad thing. I’m not so sure about this. It weakens Accusations a lot in this case.

Clucky: he/him

02-10-2023 15:50:02 UTC

for

Josh: he/they

02-10-2023 15:55:34 UTC

@JonathanDark I think the interactions between Accusations and Accas needs some prying apart; I’d support a flat Fine formulation for Meddled Accas (20 * the number of bets in the acca?) or something a bit more dynamic.

Kevan: City he/him

03-10-2023 09:20:12 UTC

imperial

JonathanDark: he/him

03-10-2023 13:12:43 UTC

imperial

Snisbo: she/they

03-10-2023 17:40:20 UTC

for

Bucky:

03-10-2023 20:13:27 UTC

CoV against because 0 Stakes Bets are invalid.