Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Proposal: [Appendix] RNG Under Construction

Withdrawn. Failed by Kevan.

Adminned at 09 Apr 2025 16:29:21 UTC

In the Appendix rule “Random Generators”, add a subrule named “Dice Roller Flaws” with the following text:

The Dice Roller must not be used to generate random results except when explicitly allowed as described in dynastic rules. The rest of the text in this rule after this sentence is flavor text.

The issue with the Dice Roller’s random number generator is described in the blog post An analysis of the PHP 7.0.33 random number generation bug.

Since there is concern that the Dice Roller isn’t truly random, we should probably prevent its use except in specific cases where it seems to be ok to rely on not-quite-random results. I worry that we’ll forget this issue down the road with a different set of players and wind up drifting back to using it before the issue is addressed.

This is in a subrule so that it’s easy to repeal whenever the issue is addressed to everyone’s satisfaction.

Comments

Kevan: Concierge he/him

08-04-2025 16:34:07 UTC

Good idea, but it should give some context and/or a link to the blog post. Your different set of players in the future are going to be mystified if they read this cold.

If as Ais says dice with powers-of-2 sides are unaffected, we could still roll those without worrying.

JonathanDark: he/him

08-04-2025 16:50:52 UTC

There’s no issue with referencing blog posts in the ruleset, is there?

JonathanDark: he/him

08-04-2025 17:10:37 UTC

Never mind, I figured out a way to make sure that the blog post in question isn’t going to be interpreted as being part of the ruleset or gamestate.

Clucky: he/him

08-04-2025 18:44:59 UTC

We’re talking about differences of 0.000005% here

Seems a really silly thing to worry about

Trapdoorspyder: he/him

08-04-2025 20:34:56 UTC

imperial I’m not quite up to date on this matter and am willing to defer this one while I’m still catching up

Clucky: he/him

08-04-2025 21:14:30 UTC

against

as it would prevent even just making test rolls, and the benefit seems incredibly marginal

Darknight: he/him

08-04-2025 22:56:58 UTC

imperial

DoomedIdeas: he/him

09-04-2025 04:33:44 UTC

for

SingularByte: he/him

09-04-2025 05:34:13 UTC

against  It’s something that should be fixed, but not so urgently that we have to put the whole concept of random chance on hold.

ais523:

09-04-2025 06:07:06 UTC

arrow The basic problem at present is that you can’t actually make a dice roll legally (unless the number of sides is a power of 2), as the rule requires both exactly correct probabilities and the use of the dice roller, and it’s impossible to comply with both requirements at the same time.

That said, I don’t think this proposal actually fixes the problem – I’d be quite happy to play with the dice roller’s actual probabilities as they are so close to correct (out by less than 1 in a billion per side on the dice), so I think the correct fix is to just treat the dice roller results as accurate even though they technically aren’t quite.

Kevan: Concierge he/him

09-04-2025 08:05:02 UTC

arrow if it’s just 1-in-a-billion per side. I’d misread Ais’s large-number posts as this being a bigger deal, with the history of players occasionally noticing that the Dice Roller had repeatedly picked the first item from a list several times in a row.

We should just note that the Roller is imperfect but close enough.

Josh: he/they

09-04-2025 08:11:39 UTC

against I would prefer a rule that states that the outcomes of the dice roll are fair enough for an otherwise legally executed roll, or, more likely, that we all just accept it and get on with our lives. I’ll be honest, my prior when considering any random selection is that it isn’t going to be 100% ‘fair’ as true fair random selection has historically been extremely hard to secure - but the differences are so slight as to hardly matter. That is what I believe to be the case here.

I do appreciate that this is probably frustrating in the light of ais’ DoV in the last dynasty; when I made the comment in that thread I was responding to my own perception that there was a casually observable bias towards low numbers. It looks like that might not be the case.

qenya: she/they

09-04-2025 09:26:07 UTC

arrow per others

DoomedIdeas: he/him

09-04-2025 12:54:05 UTC

arrow I had not realized some of the points brought up. CoV.

JonathanDark: he/him

09-04-2025 15:00:37 UTC

I appreciate the calls for revision, but if most everyone is actually ok with the Dice Roller and it’s observed flaws, I don’t see any urgent need to call it into question.

against Withdrawn