Friday, September 29, 2023

Proposal: More Odds Oddities

Enacted popular 4-1. Josh

Adminned at 01 Oct 2023 09:59:06 UTC

In the subrule “Odds”, replace the text “then Odds for all outcomes are the default value, which is 11:10.” with the following text:

then Odds for each Outcome are determined as follows:
* For each Outcome where one Participant wins, set Y for the Odds of that Outcome to that Participant’s Track Record for this Sport and set X for the Odds of that Outcome to 3 plus the total of the Track Record of all other Participants for this Sport.
* For the Outcome of “Draw”, if it exists, set X for the Odds of that Outcome to the total of the Track Record of all Participants for this Sport and set Y to 3.
* Optionally, resolve the ratio of X:Y to the lowest-common-denominator

Any Punter or the Bookie should update the Odds of the Outcomes of a Sporting Event before 00:00 UTC on the day that Sporting Event occurs using the rules for Odds.

Similar proposal to my previous one but with the tweaks that Bucky recommended. I’ve even left Giolitti alone for now.

Comments

Clucky: he/him

29-09-2023 15:09:03 UTC

will be red ticking this once it leaves the voting window. As pointed out in the other incorporating track record into the odds removes any advantage players can leverage from track records to figure out if a bet is good or not (unless of course they want to do a lot of fancy math, which I think is something we want to avoid)

Bucky:

29-09-2023 16:21:25 UTC

Contra Clucky, I’d rather have dynamic odds than a surplus of low-hanging fruit.

Josh: he/they

29-09-2023 16:34:33 UTC

Can I resolve X and Y down to lowest common denominators?

JonathanDark: he/him

29-09-2023 16:59:07 UTC

@Josh: Yep, I just now added that as an optional step

Clucky: he/him

29-09-2023 17:56:08 UTC

against

Clucky: he/him

29-09-2023 18:41:38 UTC

other concerns beyond the stuff I already mentioned:

- also “all other Participants for this Sport” needs to be “all other Participants for this Event” otherwise the odds get inflated way too high

- It also needs to account for “All Participants die” and “X Participant Wins in Sudden Death” otherwise those odds will stay kinda crap

JonathanDark: he/him

29-09-2023 22:04:39 UTC

Too late to edit, unfortunately. If this seems to be getting f traction, I’ll post a follow up Proposal to fix those things.

Josh: he/they

29-09-2023 22:16:41 UTC

imperial

Clucky: he/him

29-09-2023 22:18:50 UTC

first issue is a bit risky to address with a follow up proposal as there easily could be a few events that happen between this getting passed and the event happening, during which people could get some really favorable bets in

JonathanDark: he/him

29-09-2023 23:17:40 UTC

You’re one of the those people, though. If it’s favorable to everyone equally, then I don’t see the problem, even if it’s not ideal for a short period of time.

Clucky: he/him

29-09-2023 23:41:54 UTC

games are run at 5 am for me, so there a fairly large window where this could pass where I would be unable to take advantage of the good bets for a given day while people in other time zones could.

Bucky:

30-09-2023 00:14:38 UTC

for

Kevan: City he/him

30-09-2023 10:43:48 UTC

for