Sunday, March 11, 2012

Proposal: Proper probabilities (and a lot more dice rolling, duh)

Times out and passes 6-1, unfortunately. -Bucky

Adminned at 13 Mar 2012 16:24:30 UTC

If the Proposal “Proper Ending” is enacted, this one does nothing.

Otherwise, create a dynastic rule named “Negatives and nulls shouldn’t be discriminated against” reading:

As soon as is practical after this rule has been created, and until a Musician’s Fame has reached 10, the Frontman must repeat the following actions:
- Roll a DICEN, where N is the number of Musicians; let K be the result.
- Add 1 to the Kth Musician’s Fame, where Musicians are sorted alphabetically.

All dice must be rolled within the GNDT; however, for conveniency issues, the Frontman may roll the dice ten by ten; if too many dice are rolled, the extra rolls are ignored.

Then, the Musician whose Fame is 10 must make a post containing the name of one Musician who shares their style (or the assertion that no Musician shares their style), followed by the name of one Musician who doesn’t share their style (or the assertion that no Musician shares their style).

If both guesses are correct, that Musician then achieves Victory.

This looks much fairer to me.

Comments

Darknight: he/him

11-03-2012 04:20:01 UTC

for

Bucky:

11-03-2012 04:46:19 UTC

imperial

Josh: Observer he/they

11-03-2012 08:15:22 UTC

for

Clucky: he/him

11-03-2012 18:42:24 UTC

against How is this “fairer”? Under this way, someone who hasn’t done anything all dynasty can still win.

Clucky: he/him

11-03-2012 19:47:54 UTC

Ran a quick excel simulation

actually winds up being somewhat similar to my way

assuming no fame changs:

2500 simulations
      KOEN’s WAY     CLUCKY’s way     DIFF
Bucky 0.156462585   0.222222222   -0.065759637
DK   0.162865146   0.222222222   -0.059357076
Josh   0.025610244   0         0.025610244
Clucky 0.463785514   0.444444444   0.01934107
GT   0.097639056   0.111111111   -0.013472055
CP   0.044017607   0         0.044017607
Alda   0.050020008   0         0.050020008

So I’m around 4% more likely to win, Bucky and DK are around 30% less likely to win, and GT is around 12.5% less likely to win, with the others having a small but not impossible chance of pulling off the victory.

So yeah, if I just cared about winning I’d be all for this, but I think DK and Bucky deserve to win more than Josh and Alda, so I’m still against.

ChronosPhaenon:

12-03-2012 02:54:27 UTC

imperial

Cpt_Koen:

12-03-2012 14:51:01 UTC

Well, feel free to propose a fix, making the winning fame 7 or 8 instead of 10!

Greytyphoon:

13-03-2012 01:51:14 UTC

for Yay, 12% less chances to win!