BlogNomic: The First Dynasty of Desertfrog

What are the actual odds of a player winning instantly if he or she has four Goods, under this rule? My probability skills are rather dusty.

.095% if I did my math right. The idea is to have a foundation on which trade etc could be established, since the purpose is to be mutually beneficial.

Seems like it would make Profit almost completely inconsequential. Also the “and is then afforded the opportunity to create a Declaration of Victory” is unnecessary; the “achieves victory” is all you need.

[Doctor29] That seems low - the odds of getting three Rares with only three random items in your collection is ~0.1%, and a using a fourth item slot can only increase that, giving you more ways to arrange three or more Rares. (And since Rares can’t also be Forgeries, the chance of having any Forgeries seems negligible.)

I can maybe get behind the theme - players are collecting for sheer personal enjoyment, and having £30 of unpopular but rare baseball cards and massive debts is better than a £750 four-house property portfolio and thousands of pounds of profit? But the slim potential for a lucky insta-win - if everybody now grabbed four Sporting Goods - would be disappointing if it happened.