I made a calculator tool which shows the probability of scoring under the current rules, given the number of (rolling) assisters and defenders, and the dice sizes (which can be tweaked away from their current values).
It constantly simulates score attempts in the background since I didn’t think I could figure out the math.
This was mostly a pedagogical exercise for myself.
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ayesdeeef:
Well that does it: the goalie is OP. Now what can we do about it?
BTW, cool work ERITIVUS.