Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Proposal: The “comparison of hashed suspect lists” endgame [Victory]

The number of Amnesiacs who are not voting AGAINST it is less than Quorum. Failed by Josh

Adminned at 26 May 2020 20:27:20 UTC

If the proposal “Mayor of Sparta” was enacted, and fewer than half the EVCs on this proposal contain the string “Second choice” (in any capitalisation), revert all the additions that the proposal “Mayor of Sparta” made to the Ruleset.

Create a new rule, “The Reckoning”.

The Reckoning is at stage 1.

If the Reckoning has been continuously at stage 1 for at least 48 hours, any Amnesiac can as an atomic action amend this rule to specify the Reckoning is at stage 2, amend the special case rule “The Traitor” to make it Inactive, amend the rule “What Am I?” by removing the paragraph “An Amnesiac who has Forgotten their Role cannot achieve Victory.”, and make a Story Post announcing that stage 2 of the Reckoning has begun.

Each Amnesiac has a Report Hash, a string of text defaulting to the empty string, and tracked on the wiki page [[Community]]. Amnesiacs can change their own Report Hashes at will during stage 1 of the Reckoning (and are encouraged to change them to the SHA-256 hash of the Report they plan to submit during stage 2). A Report Hash cannot be changed during stage 2 of the Reckoning.

A Report is a string of text containing the following information:

  • Optionally, a Confrontation. This is a proof that, if the Past Memory had performed all actions that, according to the dynastic rules, the Past Memory “should” perform, then the Amnesiac who made the report would then have been able to form a belief about their own role, and be able to justify that role using a justification that is internally logically consistent, entirely based on information originating from the Past Memory combined with knowledge of the Ruleset and gamestate, and leaves no possibility for their role to be anything other than the role that Amnesiac believed they had.
  • Zero or more Denouncements. A Denouncement is a statement that a particular Amnesiac does not hold a particular Role, together with a justification that is internally logically consistent, entirely based on information originating from the Past Memory combined with knowledge of the Ruleset and gamestate, and leaves no possibility for the stated Amnesiac to have the stated Role. (Amnesiacs may include Denouncements relating to themselves.) The justification does not need to appear in the same place as the Report as the statement; in particular, the same justification may be used to justify several different Denouncements.
  • Potential additional text (e.g. to remove any risk of the hash being brute-forced).

The Accuracy of a Report is the number of essentially different Denouncements it contains, where two Denouncements are considered essentially different if they refer to different Amnesiacs and/or refer to different Roles; multiplied by 5 if the report contains a Confrontation (and not multiplied otherwise).

During stage 2 of the Reckoning, any Amnesiac may Post a Report via posting a Story Post whose body consists of that Report, and for which the SHA-256 hash of the Report is that Amnesiac’s Report Hash. (There are several tools that can be used to calculate the SHA-256 hash of a string, e.g. online at https://xorbin.com/tools/sha256-hash-calculator.) The Report in question becomes known as that Amnesiac’s “Posted Report”.

During stage 2 of the Reckoning, Amnesiacs should be honest about information they received from the Past Memory, and should disclose this where necessary to evaluate the accuracy of an Amnesiac’s Posted Report; lying about such information, or unreasonably withholding it, is considered a violation of the Fair Play rule.

Once the Reckoning has been continuously at stage 2 for at least 24 hours, an Amnesiac whose Posted Report has higher Accuracy than any other Posted Report has achieved victory. (If there is a dispute about whether a Posted Report is accurate, Amnesiacs are encouraged to resolve it via their votes on the resulting Declaration of Victory.)

I think it’d be a pity to just end the dynasty with no credit given to the play that’s taken place so far, and no resolution to anything that’s been happening. Just randomizing a win cheapens the whole concept of winning (if you really have to just ignore the entire gamestate, you should at least end the dynasty with no winner and randomize the mantle).

So here’s my suggestion. This endgame is intended to determine who had made the most progress in the main themes of the dynasty; a large bonus if you have figured out (or should have figured out) your Role by now (it’s unlikely that anyone will win without this, but I don’t want to lock anyone out from at least being given an attempt to maximise their score), smaller bonuses for figuring out other people’s Roles and/or narrowing them down to a set of possibilities. Additionally, the various submitted Reports should (once they’re revealed) give us all an idea of what people knew and how much progress they’d made in figuring things out, making the hidden state of the dynasty somewhat public. (The postgame discussion is the part of a dynasty that I’m often most interested in reading when I look back at the history of a past hidden-knowledge dynasty; knowing what was actually going on is the interesting part.)

Comments

Darknight: he/him

26-05-2020 00:55:41 UTC

Ugh, not hashes

ais523:

26-05-2020 01:05:34 UTC

I know it’s annoying, but without the help of a Past Memory, or some sort of escrow service, I don’t think there’s any other way to prevent people adjusting their Reports based on things that they see in other people’s Reports.

Publius Scribonius Scholasticus: he/they

26-05-2020 01:10:39 UTC

Since I’ve not been here for the Dynasty, I don’t really know what’s going on, but I’d be happy to fill the role of an escrow service. I also understand that many may not be comfortable with that, so I would also be pleased to vote for this.

Clucky: he/him

26-05-2020 04:49:25 UTC

So on a more minor note, this doesn’t work because the Amensiac who achieves victory still won’t be remembered.

More importantly, I feel like this also puts untoward pressure on players to share what information they’ve been told, on a tight time frame too. And could lead to a messy victory resolution process as people squabble over the content of posts and if they are really “logically consistent” or not.

I’m okay having some sort of “vote on the validity of people’s posts” mechanic instead of just going with a random winner, but however we determine a winner it should really be clear who that winning is not left up to the interpretation of the validity of someone else’s logic.

against

Josh: Observer he/they

26-05-2020 06:41:25 UTC

for

Kevan: he/him

26-05-2020 09:36:47 UTC

Good work in writing this up, and I’d normally agree with this, but the reason I demurred was the realisation that this is really just another form of randomness - the information players now have has all been originated from a few “be told a random piece of information” weekly actions. Some players will have lucked out and been given information which combines well, others won’t. It doesn’t feel like we really progressed into any informed risk-taking, in the two weeks before Naught disappeared.

My deduction pinboard is looking alright at this point, but it’s not amazing. I’m also having to factor in whether any complex hash resolution process (even if I wrote it myself) has a loophole. Or whether one player noticed an early ruleset bug that means we have no set Roles or all defaulted to Arsonists.

Actually looking at this proposal for what it does, I’m not sure there’s a clear point at which it gives a mechanism for consensus reality on Accuracy to be recognised as true. What happens if we hit a contradiction, where someone (possibly even the Past Memory) has made a genuine error in their original notes, and two players are able to “prove” opposite statements?

Kevan: he/him

26-05-2020 10:06:15 UTC

Is there really not a web service out there that lets you post messages to be revealed at a later date? Like pastebin, but with a “visible from” field as well as an “expires after”. I had a look around yesterday but could only find “email your future self” type services.

ais523:

26-05-2020 10:36:35 UTC

[@Clucky] So on a more minor note, this doesn’t work because the Amensiac who achieves victory still won’t be remembered. — it repeals the sentence in question as Stage 2 starts, so the victory does work.

[@Kevan] Isn’t that what would have decided the dynasty anyway, though, had the Past Memory not idled? Arguably the dynasty’s original goal condition was excessively random (some Roles have a huge advantage of others), but at least it was random in a way that could be manipulated (“learn your own role while keeping it secret from other players”), and which could be influenced via the nomic gameplay of creating and voting on proposals.

I understand that there might be some issues in determining who’s won, but that’s why DoVs are voted on rather than just being platonic. I think that even if there is a dispute, there’s a significant chance that it won’t have any effect on the final winner; and if it does, we’ll be in a more informed place to decide once we’re aware of which (if any) specific controversial issues have an impact on who wins. So even if the proposal doesn’t sort things out by itself, one CfJ will likely be enough to figure out who won from that point.

Kevan: he/him

26-05-2020 11:15:04 UTC

Our deductions would ultimately decide the dynasty, but we only had a few of them (two weeks with the game running at a slow weekly action speed) before Naught went silent. Evidence and Reputation would likely also have factored in, but aren’t being considered here.

Picking the winner according to deductions made so far gives undue reward to players who got the luckiest draws from the Past Memory during the time that they were responding, with an extra edge to anyone lucky enough to get a response early in the third week before Naught stopped replying to messages. And I think “multiplied by 5 if the report contains a Confrontation” is strong enough to knock out the unlucky players entirely, however much they deduced about everyone else.

Kevan: he/him

26-05-2020 12:03:34 UTC

And actually, that was a throwaway comment earlier but maybe we are all Arsonists: “Each Amnesiac has a Role, tracked privately by the Past Memory, which they are trying to remember.” means that everyone’s Role has a starting value of “Arsonist”, which possibly means that “The Past Memory may assign a Role to an Amnesiac, if such has not already been done for that Amnesiac this Dynasty” was never legally performed (if we read the defaulting as assigning a Role to an Amnesiac).

Tantusar: he/they

26-05-2020 12:50:05 UTC

against

derrick: he/him

26-05-2020 13:03:38 UTC

against

derrick: he/him

26-05-2020 13:04:23 UTC

I know of no information contradicting kevan’s “all arsonists” theory.

Publius Scribonius Scholasticus: he/they

26-05-2020 16:25:56 UTC

against

ais523:

26-05-2020 16:36:33 UTC

I read “if such has not already been done for that Amnesiac this Dynasty” as only preventing the action from taking place if that action hasn’t taken place so far in the dynasty, regardless of what the default value is.

I can see some argument of “the action is illegal because it depends on an untracked value”, but presumably the Past Memory would have been tracking it privately? The Orphan Variables rule seems problematic, anyway (it identifies a real problem, and yet the fix it prescribes for that problem appears to make the problem worse rather than fixing it).

pokes:

26-05-2020 18:39:29 UTC

against

Josh: Observer he/they

26-05-2020 20:26:51 UTC

cov against