BlogNomic: The First Dynasty of Desertfrog

Interesting take, having a weighted random pick. I’ll agree with myself having only 1 entry in this weighted set, but I’m not sure that 7 Brendan to 2 lendunistus is the right ratio.

For whatever it’s worth, Kevan did state that the list of Goals was supposed to be arranged in order of descending difficulty, and I am the only player who fulfills Signal. I also qualify for Hoard, Clash, Scavenge, Stand, Live, could freely achieve Escape or Shelter, and would have little difficulty achieving Burn or Eat, which I don’t think anyone else can stay.

Not much I can really ask at this point lol. Unless there’s more back and forth on the *faces* of the die, I’m all for giving this a green tick

I suppose we could all reveal our Stashes and see where things stand at the moment to make adjustments to the faces, if we’re basing it on achievement of the Goals in order of difficulty. I’ll show you mine if everyone shows me theirs. ;-)

That said, I’m in the same boat as Darknight. Once the faces are settled, I’ll give this a green tick.

I think Lendunistus deserves at least equal credit with Brendan here. They’d spotted the same scam and demurred on it, but could have decided to chance it later on after a victory condition had enacted. By revealing an infinite resource scam before there’s any defined way to attain victory, your high Heat instantly becomes fool’s uranium: useful, but it doesn’t get you to victory by itself, you have the difficult task of persuading a quorum to vote through a victory condition that lets you win.

In a parallel game where this scam hadn’t been mentioned, if Brendan produced a Solar Panel and Gloves and then proposed “last player standing wins”, people would probably scrutinise those particular Items before voting (and Lendunistus could choose to point out the scam).

In a game where Lendunistus decided to chance the scam, they could have kept their Stash secret and proposed “last player standing” first (and in fact had already tried to do this a few days ago): people might have been wary, but non-specifically, and they could have been reassured with balancing measures that didn’t block the scam. I don’t know how it would have played out if Brendan gambled on voting that proposal through and the two of them had a Solar-off, but I wouldn’t put the odds that far apart.

Oh, I should also mention that if I pick up two more Metal or Sharp items, I can teleport to any Location for 1 Time using Douse, blow it up with a Pressure Bomb, and then use a Nailed Bat to freely Douse anyone into unconsciousness at a cost of 1 Time per .3 Heat attack (.2 if you’ve got a Jacket, but that’s still putting everyone else unconscious within a very short span). I think my odds of being the last player standing are better than 60%.

Not sure if you’re suggesting that the Douse teleport trick would give you an advantage in the situation where Lendunistus was the one to propose “last player standing wins”, but it was publicly flagged up as an “arguable” use case during voting.

Kevan, I think you’re perceiving this CfJ as primarily a matter of “I saw the scam so I should win,” but what I actually want to argue is that I am better positioned than every other player no matter which way a victory condition might emerge. I respect lendun for the scam, but he didn’t play the game to the point where it could use it. I did. I’m not currently subject to being rendered unconscious by a single move; he is. Both are in part a matter of luck, but luck is a big part of the way we voted to play this game.

My perception is that you’re advancing a view of relative odds based on what could have happened but didn’t. I’m asking to roll a die to shortcut what would happen if we decided to grind things out from this point.

lendunistus, what odds of victory would you give yourself, with things as they currently stand?

(Oh, and I’m not looking at the “routes don’t technically exist between Villagers” ambiguity in Douse; I’m looking at how there is no “route between” the Village Square and the Cellar. Hopping there for 1 Time and then Pressure Bombing it into an Outdoors Location makes it a 1-Time Nailed Bat portal to any player unless they’re in the Shed.)

We can’t shortcut to “grind things out from this point”, because there’s no victory condition. One step of that grind will have to create the victory condition, and the only way to do that is to get one voted in - which will be an impossibly hard sell from a player who has an infinite Heat source at their fingertips.

“I am better positioned than every other player no matter which way a victory condition might emerge” - there are many victory conditions that would reduce that position! Most flippantly we could enact “coldest player wins”, but it’s more likely that any victory condition that did enact would also nerf the Solar Panel, and dial some or all of your gained Heat back down. Any proposed victory condition has to satisfy a quorum of voters.

Weighing up “what could have happened but didn’t” seems the only way to go. We have a player who noticed a scam, used it too early and now literally cannot win with it by playing the game out; and another player who noticed a scam, decided against using it, but may have been in a position to do so successfully in the future. I don’t think a 7-2 split in favour of the first player is a fair one. At a dynastic level, moving first with an infinite resource scam is only an effective tactic if it actually gets you over the victory line before people can wind you back.

if I pick up a Fabric or Electronic item from the search I started this morning (which is a 4/7 chance), I can pick up gloves and use the scam myself, since I have a solar panel in my stash. even if you douse yourself over to me, I can just respire off you since you have no time to go anywhere else

once I’ve used the scam, theoretically you’d have a ~99% chance of winning since you have more heat than me, realistically, that would take an extremely long time so we’d propose a coin flip/victory of brendan

so multiply 4/7 by 50% ig

2/7 is within 1% of 3/11, by my math. I’ll amend the die to 6 Brendan, 3 lendun, 1 Kevan, 1 JD.

percentages could be different if I get aid from someone who happens to get both parts of the scam, but that’s unlikely
i’ll consider it

I’m fine with the modified die

actually, just realised that anyone who takes advantage of the scam is literally unkillable so it wouldn’t even matter if I get aid

anyways, 

And that’s quorum, but I still don’t think this is a fair split to Lendunistus, or a helpful example of how to handle dynasties without victory conditions.

It’s like we’re playing a card game where there are two “infinite Heat” cards in the deck and a lot of “if four people have played a copy of this card, most Heat wins” cards. Playing the former before any of the latter have come out is a mistake, because it means people won’t play the cards you need; keeping it in your hand for later may or may not work out, but it is the stronger play.