A freezing October morning, and the recalcitrant citizens of Zahndorf are cajoled into meeting in the town hall for a back hair inspection. You stand in a circle with your backs to each other, and the smocks and aprons come off.
Looking over your shoulders, the only villagers with remarkable back hair are Amnistar, Clucky, Rodney, Tesla4D and Zaratustra.
(The Mayor didn’t have much left when you buried his remains, but he definitely didn’t have a hairy back.)
If I had to guess, I’d say that no one has been shaved.
If there are 2 werewolves, we should have expected to have .5*2+.25*14=4.5 hairy backs generated. If someone has been shaved, that means that there really were at least 6 hairy backs originally. According to my rough calculations, that’s about 1 standard deviation above expected, which only happens (again roughly) 16% of the time.
So out of the 5 hairy people, each has what % chance of being a werewolf? And by some fluke, none of them might be werewolves…
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Chivalrybean:
Shaved anyone recently, Zaratustra? ‘oo better than ta shave the backs of werewolves, then a wolf emself!