Monday, March 31, 2025

Proposal: Know the Odds

Found unpopular with 1-5 and fails -SingularByte

Adminned at 01 Apr 2025 05:51:10 UTC

After the first paragraph of “Announcements of Attainment”, add a new paragraph:

When the game enters Lacuna, the Equity of each Nomicer is set to the value specified for that Nomicer’s Equity on the public Equity tracker. If a Nomicer believes that any of those values are incorrect, a Call for Judgement should be called to correct its value (and Calls for Judgement for this purpose can legally be made even if there is no dispute as to what the correct value is).

It’s quite probable that there are mistakes on the Equity tracker, or will be in the future – there have already been at least three incidents that cause them to be uncertain (SingularByte Laddering the flavor text field, the “is Milling legal?” discussion, and the mess-up with midnight last night). This is a problem because Roll Off requires the probabilities to be exactly correct – so if you use incorrect probabilities, e.g. because the tracker is wrong, the win isn’t actually awarded – and thus if the winner of the roll isn’t confident that the correct probabilities were used (and it seems hard to be confident of that), they can’t legally post a DoV and thus we will need a CFJ to fix the matter (or possibly the dynasty will fail to end correctly if the winner posts the DoV regardless).

Instead, let’s save time by doing an auto-“uphold” of the tracker as Lacuna is entered. That will give us 48 hours to do any corrections, which is enough time to pass a CFJ, and should hopefully ensure that the roll-off is uncontroversial.

posted by ais523 at 31 Mar 2025 17:33:00 UTC Comments (6)

Comments

Josh: he/they

31-03-2025 19:29:43 UTC

against This doesn’t work. If the Equity of a player has been set to x then then their Equity is x, and x is its correct value, regardless of whether the value should have been something else before it was set to x. The validation step has to happen before the value is set.

Raven1207: he/they

31-03-2025 20:40:30 UTC

against

ais523:

31-03-2025 21:25:09 UTC

@Josh: presumably you’re talking about making a call for judgement to “correct” the value, which wouldn’t technically be incorrect at that point? If that’s your only issue with the proposal, you can arrow it and I can submit a corrected version. Or is there something else wrong?

(It’s something of a bug that you can’t legally make a CFJ to do that sort of revert-an-incorrect-uphold under the present core rules as it is.)

Darknight: he/him

01-04-2025 02:19:06 UTC

against

DoomedIdeas: he/him

01-04-2025 04:03:14 UTC

against Instead of setting the Equity to the possibly-incorrect tracker value and requiring a CfJ, wouldn’t it be better to allow a check of the tracker before the Roll Off is called? Your mistake with the midnight reset was caught in much less time than 48 hours, so it seems reasonable (to me, at least) that the period of Lacuna is enough time to fix any mistakes without automatically changing any Nomicer’s Equity.

SingularByte: he/him

01-04-2025 04:06:31 UTC

against