Monday, March 15, 2021

Call for Judgment: Uniform Sized Raviolitti

Has Reached a Quorum of AGAINST votes, so fails—Clucky

Adminned at 15 Mar 2021 19:08:53 UTC

Per the rules

If a number or other game variable is selected “at random” or “randomly” from a range of possible values, its value shall always be taken from a uniform probability distribution over the entire range of possible values, unless otherwise specified

According to Josh, I had 24 power, Jumble had 23 power. This means, doing a little math, Kevan had 23 power and Pokes had 26 power.

This means, proportional to my heft (which, while reported as 17.6 was likely closer to 0.176470588%), I should have had a 24/96 chance of being selected, Kevan a 23/96, Jumble a 23/96, and Pokes a 26/96.

However, these are not the odds used. Pokes was instead given a 271/1000 chance, which while *close* to 26/96 is not quite 26/96. This means that an actually uniform probability distribution was not actually used, rather an approximation of one. And while it was a very good approximation, the rules do not permit approximations.

As a result, Josh should re-roll for the winner, this time rolling a DICE96:

To avoid possible confusion with what the result of the dice roll means:

On a 1-26 the winner will be Pokes, on a 27-50 the winner will be Clucky, on a 51-73 the winner will be Jumble, and on a 74-96 the winner will be Kevan.

Comments

Josh: Observer he/they

15-03-2021 16:02:00 UTC

against

Lulu: she/her

15-03-2021 16:04:19 UTC

for

Josh: Observer he/they

15-03-2021 16:08:32 UTC

Your argument is technically correct, which is a very good kind of correct.

Hmm… Actually, I might be talking myself into it. Or rather, I can’t quite defeat it, which is almost the same thing. Let’s CoV to for and see what happens.

pokes:

15-03-2021 16:09:11 UTC

against

Zack: he/him

15-03-2021 16:13:23 UTC

against

pokes:

15-03-2021 16:13:49 UTC

imperial CoV (I know this vote does nothing, but I really don’t know)

Brendan: he/him

15-03-2021 16:17:42 UTC

against

Raven1207: he/they

15-03-2021 17:20:07 UTC

for

pokes:

15-03-2021 17:23:11 UTC

what the hell, sure, a for is now effectively a deferral to everyone else now that I posted Precision Raviolitti.

Josh: Observer he/they

15-03-2021 18:18:37 UTC

CoV against We have a problem in that the dice roll and subsequent AAs are posed as dynastic actions in a hiatus. Needs a bigger fix.

Bucky:

15-03-2021 18:18:51 UTC

for

Lulu: she/her

15-03-2021 18:23:34 UTC

against per Josh

Kevan: he/him

15-03-2021 18:39:16 UTC

Adding an actual vote for posterity, since I’ve only been musing on Slack a bit this afternoon: my take is that while we can and do pounce on player mistakes, we should always apply neutral and minimal changes when correcting a genuine Emperor mistake (like the occasional “uphold previous Emperor action as if it was legal, and play on” corrections which sail through unopposed).

I don’t think this is the most minimal solution to “Emperor rolled a very slightly wrong die when asked to”, when that die can easily be remapped to the correct one.

against

Clucky: he/him

15-03-2021 19:06:35 UTC

against per Kevan