Friday, May 23, 2025

Proposal: [Appendix] Let’s just assume the dice are fair

In the Appendix, in rule “Random Generators”, change:

The Dice Roller at https://blognomic.com/dice/roll.php can be used to generate random results.

to

The Dice Roller at https://blognomic.com/dice/roll.php can be used to generate random results. For the purpose of determining the probability distribution of a random selection, each Dice Roller command is assumed to generate each of its possible results with equal probability (except in the case where duplicate values are placed inside a curly-bracketed list).

 

Non-secret random selections are currently broken because a) you have to use the Dice Roller for it but b) the Dice Roller is written in PHP, and the version of PHP powering BlogNomic has a bug in its random number generation routines, so it’s impossible to satisfy the “correct probability distribution” and “use the Dice Roller” requirements simultaneously.

The amount by which the probabilities are wrong is incredibly small and unlikely to have a noticeable gameplay impact, so we may as well just treat the Dice Roller results as valid. (The probability of each individual result can’t be wrong by more than 0.000000023 percentage points; with the Dice Roller limited to million-sided dice, that means that the total probabilities can’t be wrong by more than 0.023% even if someone tries to use a DICE1000000 in a way that takes maximum advantage of the bug.)

(This was inspired by seeing some random choices within some of the Plans that have been posted – this appendix bug will need to be fixed before those dynasties will work.)

Comments

DoomedIdeas: he/him

23-05-2025 05:39:11 UTC

for

Trapdoorspyder: he/him

23-05-2025 06:36:01 UTC

for while I do understand the concerns I do believe that they are very very minor. I’m willing to be convinced should singing particularly problematic be pointed out however

qenya: she/they

23-05-2025 07:39:55 UTC

Recusant for

Slightly embarrassed I forgot all about this one when SingularByte gave up on trying to fix it last dynasty.

Josh: he/they

23-05-2025 08:34:21 UTC

I’m a little nervous about this, remembering the php injection scam that happened a few dynasties ago. Are we absolutely sure that this can’t create a self-supporting scam where a malicious actor deliberately distorts the dice results then has those results upheld as they are defined as accurate?

qenya: she/they

23-05-2025 09:29:37 UTC

I had that concern on the last version and was reassured that it would undoubtedly fall under Fair Play.

Kevan: he/him

23-05-2025 11:04:19 UTC

It does seem covered by the rambling “A person with administrative, moderation, or other heightened access to the software running or supporting BlogNomic should not take any action…” Fair Play line.

Doesn’t the “where duplicate values are placed inside a curly-bracketed list” exception mean that we couldn’t use such rolls?

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