Wednesday, September 06, 2023

Proposal: Playing the Odds

Timed out and enacted, 2-0 with two unresolved DEFs. Josh

Adminned at 08 Sep 2023 17:50:13 UTC

In the rule “Form Sheet”, replace the text “The values of X and Y for each Odds should be chosen by the Bookie by whatever means they deem to be appropriate for the Sporting Event.” with the following text:

The values of X and Y for each Odds must be determined using the rules for the Sport identified in the Sporting Event. If no such rules for determining Odds exist for a Sport, then Odds cannot be used in any Sporting Event in which that Sport occurs.

If there is a subrule named “Soccer” in the rule “Form Sheet”, add the following text to that subrule:

Odds: The Odds for the possible Outcomes are determined by matching the combination of the 2 Participants to the row in the Odds table below and using the Odds for the Outcomes listed for that row:

{| class="wikitable"
|+ Odds
|-
! Participants !! Odds
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Twoshirts FC ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 1-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 3-1
* Draw 2-1
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Pseudopolis ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 2-1
* Pseudopolis wins 2-1
* Draw 1-1
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Upper Feltwhistle ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 1-1
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 5-1
* Draw 3-1
|-
| Pseudopolis, Twoshirts FC ||
* Pseudopolis wins 1-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 2-1
* Draw 1-1
|-
| Upper Feltwhistle, Twoshirts FC ||
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 3-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 1-1
* Draw 2-1
|-
| Pseudopolis, Upper Feltwhistle ||
* Pseudopolis wins 1-1
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 4-1
* Draw 3-1
|}

The Odds for the Soccer match-ups are not strictly mathematically calculated from the real chances, but they are “related”, which I think is good enough. I’m not opposed if folks would rather have more strictly-calculated Odds.

Comments

Josh: he/they

06-09-2023 20:57:01 UTC

The issue that I have with this is that it makes some bets a bit of a foregone conclusion. Given that, in practice, Ankh-Morpork United and Twoshirts FC have the exact same odds of winning, why would you ever bet on the 1:1 offer when a 3:1 offer was available?

JonathanDark: he/him

06-09-2023 21:45:41 UTC

Do they? Maybe I did the math incorrectly, but my intention for the Method of Resolution for Soccer was to give some teams better odds than others for winning.

Taking your example of Ankh-Morpork United and Twoshirts FC:

* Ankh has a 2/3 chance of winning Possession (8 out of DICE12).
* For each Possession, Ankh is nearly 50% chance to Score (6 out of DICE13), whereas Twoshirts is 25% chance to Score (2 out of DICE8).
* Over 6 tries, Ankh will on average get Possession on 4 of them and thus likely Score on 2 out of those 4. Twoshirts will get the other 2 Possessions and likely not Score at all.
* Average Score for this match-up results in 2-0 Ankh.

Josh: he/they

06-09-2023 21:51:43 UTC

Ah, okay.

I have clearly not mathsed well enough to evaluate these odds, so I’ll give a polite imperial to the Punters who will tangle with them.

Kevan: City he/him

08-09-2023 14:29:06 UTC

imperial I have not had a chance to tangle with them.

pokes:

08-09-2023 14:55:18 UTC

for I unidle, raising quorum to 5.