Proposal: Playing the Odds
Timed out and enacted, 2-0 with two unresolved DEFs. Josh
Adminned at 08 Sep 2023 17:50:13 UTC
In the rule “Form Sheet”, replace the text “The values of X and Y for each Odds should be chosen by the Bookie by whatever means they deem to be appropriate for the Sporting Event.” with the following text:
The values of X and Y for each Odds must be determined using the rules for the Sport identified in the Sporting Event. If no such rules for determining Odds exist for a Sport, then Odds cannot be used in any Sporting Event in which that Sport occurs.
If there is a subrule named “Soccer” in the rule “Form Sheet”, add the following text to that subrule:
Odds: The Odds for the possible Outcomes are determined by matching the combination of the 2 Participants to the row in the Odds table below and using the Odds for the Outcomes listed for that row:
{| class="wikitable"
|+ Odds
|-
! Participants !! Odds
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Twoshirts FC ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 1-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 3-1
* Draw 2-1
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Pseudopolis ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 2-1
* Pseudopolis wins 2-1
* Draw 1-1
|-
| Ankh-Morpork United, Upper Feltwhistle ||
* Ankh-Morpork United wins 1-1
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 5-1
* Draw 3-1
|-
| Pseudopolis, Twoshirts FC ||
* Pseudopolis wins 1-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 2-1
* Draw 1-1
|-
| Upper Feltwhistle, Twoshirts FC ||
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 3-1
* Twoshirts FC wins 1-1
* Draw 2-1
|-
| Pseudopolis, Upper Feltwhistle ||
* Pseudopolis wins 1-1
* Upper Feltwhistle wins 4-1
* Draw 3-1
|}
The Odds for the Soccer match-ups are not strictly mathematically calculated from the real chances, but they are “related”, which I think is good enough. I’m not opposed if folks would rather have more strictly-calculated Odds.
Josh: Mastermind he/they
The issue that I have with this is that it makes some bets a bit of a foregone conclusion. Given that, in practice, Ankh-Morpork United and Twoshirts FC have the exact same odds of winning, why would you ever bet on the 1:1 offer when a 3:1 offer was available?